Index Vakbarát Hírportál

Hungarian municipal elections - Fidesz mayor’s sex tape baffles pollsters

2019. október 12., szombat 13:27

Nézőpont and Századvég predict an easy victory for Tarlós, but the other think-tanks expect an incredibly close race on Sunday. Uncertainty was more prominent than usual during the analysts’ conference, nobody dared to predict, how Borkai-gate will affect the voters.

Pollsters found themselves in a pickle by the end of the municipal election campaign. The leaked sex tape of Zsolt Borkai, Győr's Fidesz mayor and the details about him that were posted on an anonymous blog have overwritten every political- and media-agenda.

One or two days are simply not enough for the think-tanks to measure the effects this scandal could have on Sunday's election. So the heads of the biggest think-tanks in Hungary had to come up with all sorts of excuses for themselves at the conference organized by Közvéleménykutató on Thursday afternoon.

The heads of the five big think-tanks agreed during the discussion that Borkai-gate will have an effect, but they could not tell which voters this scandal will mobilize, or indeed, demobilize. Here are some quotes to illustrate the uncharacteristic caution of the researchers:

Tarlós is in the lead – either by a little or by a lot

The researchers were more comfortable talking about the Tarlós-Karácsony duel, although they all emphasized that the race much closer by now. To be clear, they all measured the difference between the two Lord Mayoral candidates od Budapest than they did even a month or two ago. The predictions of Nézőpont were especially interesting, as only a few weeks ago they measured an 18-percentage-point difference between Tarlós and Karácsony, while other think-tanks considered the difference to be much smaller.

Dániel Nagy said they have no intention of influencing the Fidesz-supporters. In their latest survey, they only found the difference to be 6 percentage points. The previous, sizeable difference was probably the result of the leaked audio footage of Gergely Karácsony, which made his voters more uncertain during the time of the survey, while it also riled up many Tarlós' voters.

It is worth to take a look at the final predictions of the big think-tanks, and also to check them again on Sunday evening after the results our out. The predictions of each think-tank are listed in the following order: Tarlós – Karácsony – Puzsér – Berki (the methods were not entirely the same, but they all cover decided voters):

It is apparent that while Nézőpont and Századvég (both have ties to the right) predict a comfortable win for Tarlós, the other institutes expect a much closer game. We'll see on Sunday who was more accurate.

Apart from the cold, hard facts gathered from Budapest, the researchers also brought plenty of interesting analyses that could give us a clearer picture about what to expect on Sunday.

These are the last predictions before Sunday's election. It will be interesting to pick up this article again next week. Ágoston Sámuel Mráz, the head of Nézőpont mentioned during the conference that they are planning to organise another discussion after the election, where they could evaluate the conclusions.

This article is a translation of the original published in Hungarian by Index.

(Header image: Presentation of Endre Hann, CEO of Medián. Photo: Orsi Ajpek / Index)